Today
Trump’s hand-picked Fed chairman signals rate hikes are coming — import prices post their largest 3-month surge since 2020 — the Dow hits a record while consumers pay 41% more for gas — and the Iran deal being signed tomorrow is a page and a half long

Trump’s hand-picked Federal Reserve chairman held his first meeting on Wednesday. Kevin Warsh — a former Morgan Stanley executive confirmed in the most partisan Senate vote for a Fed chair in history — held interest rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% for the fourth meeting in a row. Then he stepped to the podium and sent a message that landed harder than the rate decision itself.

Inflation, Warsh said, remains “somewhat elevated.” The committee’s new projection calls for only one quarter-point cut for the rest of 2026. That is a sharp downgrade from earlier expectations of multiple cuts this year. Markets are now pricing in a 70% chance that rates will go up — not down — by December.

The vote was 10 to 2. In May, under former chair Jerome Powell, the split was 8 to 4 — the sharpest divide since 1992. Warsh consolidated the board in a single meeting. Powell was pushed out in mid-May. Warsh was confirmed 54 to 45. And now the man who spent most of his career on Wall Street is telling Americans that the war-driven inflation they are living through will not be met with relief.

The war lasted 107 days. The inflation it created is still running at more than double the Fed’s 2% target. And the new chairman’s first act was to tell the country that cheaper borrowing is not coming.
Confirmed 54-45. First meeting done. Rate cuts off the table.

BREAKING

Import Prices Posted Their Largest Three-Month Surge Since 2020 — and the Deal Has Not Changed a Thing Yet

Import prices jumped 1.9% in May, well above the 1.1% forecast. On an annual basis, they rose 6.7% — the largest gain since August 2022.

But here’s the number that matters most. From February through May — the three-month period that covers the war — import prices surged 58.3%. That is the largest three-month gain since July 2020. Fuel and lubricant prices alone jumped 12.5% in a single month.

The Strait of Hormuz may open on Friday. But the oil that already moved through other routes, the shipping rates that already spiked, and the fuel costs that already passed through the supply chain are now locked into the price of everything America imports.

Gas is still up 41% from a year ago. Airfares are still up 27%. And the Fed just said it has no plans to cut rates to ease the pressure. The war may end this week. The bill will take longer.

EXPOSED

The Dow Hit a Record High of 51,671 on the Iran Deal — While Consumers Are Still Paying 41% More for Gas

The Dow Jones closed at a record high on Monday. The index hit 51,671 — up 468 points in a single session. The S&P 500 rose 1.65%. The Nasdaq jumped 3.07%, its best day since March.

Wall Street is pricing in a peace dividend. Airlines surged — United was up 5.4%, Delta 2.2%, cruise lines up 4%. Oil majors like Exxon and Chevron fell nearly 4% each. The trade is clear. The war is ending. The money is moving.

But the peace dividend went to one place… markets. SpaceX, which went public five days ago, rose another 20% to $192.50 a share on Monday, pushing its valuation past $2.26 trillion. The Dow is at a record. Oil fell to its lowest since early March.

Consumers did not get a peace dividend. Gas is still above $4. Rent is still climbing. Food prices are still elevated. And the Fed just said rates are staying where they are. Wall Street got cheaper oil. Main Street got a Fed chair who says relief is not coming.

Wall Street got the peace dividend. Main Street got a Fed chair who says relief is not coming.

— The Seventh Floor

DEVELOPING

The Iran Deal Will Be Signed Tomorrow in Geneva. The Document Is a Page and a Half Long. And Nobody Has Seen It.

The Iran deal will be signed tomorrow in Geneva. Pakistan’s prime minister confirmed the venue. Iran’s deputy foreign minister said further talks will follow. And the text of the memorandum of understanding, Trump said, will be released “pretty soon.”

But four days after the president declared the deal complete, the terms have still not been made public. Vice President JD Vance told reporters the document is “about a page and a half” long. It is a broad framework that leaves details to be worked out later. The nuclear program is not addressed. The Lebanon war is not resolved. There are no verification mechanisms and no timeline for mine removal.

Iran’s president said a final agreement has not been completed. A foreign policy analyst noted that service fees and other mechanisms have been floated… meaning Iran could still charge ships to pass through the strait Trump promised would be “permanently toll-free.”

Trump said he will not attend the ceremony. The deal is a page and a half. The signing is tomorrow. And the terms are still a secret.
  Connecting the Dots  

▸ The Bigger Picture

Four stories on June 18. Trump’s hand-picked Fed chairman held his first meeting and made it clear that rate cuts are off the table — and a hike is on it. Import prices posted their largest three-month surge since 2020, driven almost entirely by war-fueled energy costs. The Dow hit a record high of 51,671 while consumers are still paying 41% more for gas and 27% more for airfare. And the deal with Iran will be signed tomorrow in Geneva… on a page-and-a-half document that nobody outside the White House has read.

The press calls it a peace dividend. The Dow is up. Oil is down. The war is ending. But the inflation is still running. The Fed just said it will not help. And the deal being signed tomorrow does not include the two things that started the war: the nuclear program and the fighting in Lebanon.

Wall Street got the peace dividend. The Fed chairman got the podium. The president got the credit. And the American consumer got told that the cost of the war is locked in — and that the man who now runs the central bank has no plans to lower it.

The signing is tomorrow. The strait opens Friday, maybe. And the page-and-a-half deal that ended a war nobody voted for will be signed by people most Americans have never heard of, in a city most Americans cannot find on a map. That’s the Seventh Floor.

They rely on the shadows.
It’s time to turn on the lights.