Today
THE U.S. LOST 23,000 JOBS IN JULY — THE FIRST DECLINE SINCE FEBRUARY, SAUDI ARABIA, TURKEY, AND PAKISTAN SIGNED A NATO-STYLE DEFENSE PACT IN MECCA, THE PENTAGON GAVE WEAPONS MAKERS 21 DAYS TO RAMP UP PRODUCTION — AND TRUMP SAID HE IS “LOW-KEYING” IRAN TALKS WHILE IRAN ISSUED DEMANDS

The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July. Economists expected a gain of 83,000. It was the first month of job losses since February… and the gap between what Wall Street expected and what happened was the widest in over a year.

It gets worse. The government also revised May and June downward by a combined 103,000 jobs. That means the labor market has been weaker than anyone thought for three straight months. The labor force participation rate fell to 61.4 percent… the lowest since 1976 outside of the pandemic. More than 2 million people have left the workforce since November.

Wages grew at 3.2 percent over the past year… the slowest in five years. Gas is still at $4.04 a gallon, up 36 percent since the war began. Inflation is at 3.5 percent… well above the Fed’s target. The Glassdoor worker confidence index hit a record low in July.

“It’s pretty shocking,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter. “Over two million people have left the labor force since November.” Another analyst called the data “a sign that the labor market may be losing momentum and can no longer be considered the pillar of strength.”

The war costs $250 million a day. Oil companies made $54 billion last quarter. And the economy just posted its first job loss since the month the war started. The public pays for the war at the pump, at the grocery store, and now at the office.

23,000 JOBS LOST. 103,000 REVISED DOWN. LABOR FORCE AT LOWEST SINCE 1976. THE WAR IS NOW IN YOUR PAYCHECK.

BREAKING

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan Signed a NATO-Style Defense Pact in Mecca — an Attack on One Is Now an Attack on All Three

On Thursday, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Erdogan, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement. It is the first trilateral military pact between three major Muslim-majority nations. Under the deal, an armed attack against any one of the three is to be treated as an attack against all three.

Each country brings something the others need. Saudi Arabia has the money. Pakistan has the nuclear weapons and the manpower. Turkey has the fastest-growing drone and defense export industry in the region. The Atlantic Council called it “an inflection point in the emerging multipolar order.”

The pact was signed in Mecca… Islam’s holiest city… while the U.S. war with Iran raged and Houthis continued striking Saudi oil sites. Hours before the signing, a Saudi official told Reuters the kingdom was bracing for more proxy attacks from Iran’s allies in Yemen and Iraq.

The U.S. spent 80 years building the security order in the Middle East. It signed the Saudi nuclear deal. It sold the weapons. It ran the bases. And now three countries just built their own alliance… without the U.S. at the table. The machine’s clients are becoming a bloc.

EXPOSED

The Pentagon Gave Weapons Makers 21 Days to Submit Plans for Faster Production — Patriot Interceptors Dropped from 2,330 to 1,030 During the War

Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg sent a memo to defense industry leaders on Wednesday telling them to submit plans within 21 days to “drive significantly faster, more aggressive delivery schedules and/or increased production for critical capabilities.” The memo was obtained by the Washington Post. The Pentagon confirmed it is “real.”

A new analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies found that Patriot interceptor stocks dropped from 2,330 before the war to 1,030 when the April ceasefire took effect. CSIS warned that shrinking stocks “may force the U.S. and its allies to take more risks to conserve air defenses”… meaning troops may fire fewer missiles at incoming drones, raising the chance that one gets through.

Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. has “massive amounts” of weapons. The CSIS data says otherwise. The defense spending bill is stalled in Congress. The White House wants $1.5 trillion for the Pentagon… up from $900 billion last year. Lawmakers are resisting.

The memo says “years-long development cycles are not acceptable.” The machine burned through half its Patriot missiles in five months. Now it is asking the companies it pays to build more… faster… while the president says the shelves are full.

“Over two million people have left the labor force since November.”

— Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter chief economist, on the July jobs report

DEVELOPING

Trump Says He Is “Low-Keying” Iran Talks — While Iran’s Security Chief Issued a List of Demands the U.S. Must Meet Before the Strait Reopens

On Sunday, Trump told Axios in a phone call from Air Force One that the U.S. is “low-keying” talks with Iran. “We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money,” he said. He described Iran as “in very bad shape” and said Tehran cannot afford to pay its soldiers.

On Saturday, Iran’s national security chief published a list of demands that the U.S. must meet before the Strait of Hormuz reopens. The demands include lifting the naval blockade, withdrawing U.S. forces from the region, and a permanent end to the war. CNN reported Sunday that it is unclear whether these demands will survive the latest shakeup: Supreme Leader Khamenei replaced his top representative on the Supreme National Security Council over the weekend.

Meanwhile, Iran and Oman have agreed on the geographic coordinates for a new shipping corridor through the strait. If finalized, the deal would give Iran a role in managing who enters the Gulf… which analysts have called “one of the biggest concessions yet.”

The U.S. went to war to open the strait. Five months and $37.5 billion later, Iran is setting the terms for reopening it. The president calls this “low-keying.”

 Connecting the Dots 

▸ The Bigger Picture

Four stories from one weekend. The economy lost 23,000 jobs… the first decline since the war started… while gas stays above $4, wages grow at a five-year low, and two million people have simply stopped looking for work. Three countries signed a NATO-style defense pact in Mecca without the U.S. in the room. The Pentagon told weapons makers they have 21 days to figure out how to build more missiles because the shelves are getting bare. And the president said he is “low-keying” a war that has cost $37.5 billion, 18 American lives, and half the Patriot missile supply.

The press covers each on its own beat. An “economic report.” A “foreign policy development.” A “defense acquisition story.” A “diplomatic update.” But the thread is the same in every one.

The machine is losing on every front and calling it strategy. Jobs are gone and the president talks about oil. Allies are forming blocs without the U.S. and the press calls it a “signal.” The missiles are running out and the memo says build more. Iran is setting the terms for reopening the strait the U.S. went to war to open and the president calls it “low-keying.” The machine does not admit failure. It renames it.

When the machine loses 23,000 jobs, half its missiles, and its seat at the table… and calls it “low-keying”… the language is the lie. That’s the Seventh Floor.

They rely on the shadows.
It’s time to turn on the lights.